Wednesday 25th January: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.10 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.25 %, Hang Seng rose 0.10 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.35 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1205 (-0.45 %), Silver at $17.06 (-0.75 %), WTI Oil at $53.05 (-0.30 %), Brent Oil at $55.35 (-0.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.46, UK 10-year yield at 1.40, German 10-year yield at 0.41

News & Data:

  • Australia CPI (YoY) Q4: 1.5% (est. 1.60%, prev. 1.30%)
  • Australia CPI (QoQ) Q4: 0.5% (est. 0.70%, prev. 0.70%)
  • Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) Q4:  1.6% (est. 1.70%, prev. 1.70%)
  • Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) Q4: 0.4% (est. 0.50%, prev. 0.40%)
  • Australia Weighted Median CPI (YoY) Q4: 1.5% (est. 1.40%, prev. 1.30%)
  • Australia Weighted Median CPI (QoQ) Q4: 0.4% (est. 0.50%, prev. 0.30%)
  • Japanese Trade Balance (JPY) Dec: 641.4B (est. 281.1B, rev prev. 150.8B from 153.0B)
  • Japanese Trade Balance Adjusted (JPY) Dec:  356.7B (est. 209.9B, rev prev. 466.1B from 536.1B)
  • Japanese Exports (YoY) Dec: 5.4% (est. 1.10%, prev. -0.40%)
  • Japanese Imports (YoY) Dec: -2.6% (est. -0.80%, prev. -8.80%)
  • PBOC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8596 (prev. fix 6.8331, prev close 6.8585)
  • Asian stocks at three-month highs on U.S. cues, dollar rebounds for now – RTRS
  • Oil eases on rising U.S. inventory, market looks to EIA data – RTRS

Markets Update:

US stock markets rallied yesterday and Asian markets followed them higher, as risk appetite increased slightly. US investors reacted positively to the latest measures by US President Trump, which includes moving forward with the construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines.

The Dollar's gains were limited however. In Asia, the currency consolidated against most other majors, with the only notable gain being against the Australian Dollar. The AUD came under pressure following softer than expected inflation data. The RBA is expected to remain neutral, but the weak figures have triggered some position covering from AUD longs.

USD/JPY ran into strong resistance ahead of the 114 level and declined back to 113.40 overnight. Further losses seem likely. Support is seen at 112.50, followed by 111.30.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
  • 13:15 GMT – German Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks
  • 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 15:30 GMT – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
  • 16:00 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand CPI

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