Wednesday 10th May: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.25 %, Hang Seng rose 0.85 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.55 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1224 (+0.65 %), Silver at $16.23 (+1.00 %), WTI Oil at $46.15 (+0.60 %), Brent Oil at $49.00 (+0.50 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.39, UK 10-year yield at 1.20, German 10-year yield at 0.43

News & Data

  • China CPI (MoM) Apr: 0.1%, Prior (-0.30%)
  • China CPI (YoY) Apr: 1.2%, Prior (0.90%)
  • China PPI (YoY) Apr: 6.4%, Prior (7.70%)
  • BOJ Meeting Summary: If BOJ Does Not Reduce JGB Purchases Soon Sustainability of Policy Will Come in To Doubt Next Year
  • BOJ Meeting Summary: Should Maintain Current Accommodative Policy Due TO Downside Risks from Overseas
  • BOJ Kuroda: Japan Export Volumes Clearly Rising, Helping Output and Labour Market, Want to Closely Monitor FX Impact on Japan's Economy
  • BOJ: Expect Labour Shortages to Lead to Higher Wages, Which Will Push Up Inflation Expectations
  • BOJ Kuroda: Watching Effect of FX Changes Very Carefully

Markets Update:

The Euro remains under pressure. EUR/USD recovered slightly in Asia, but failed to break above 1.09 resistance and is again moving lower. The outcome of the French election was already priced in, and the dovish outlook for ECB policy is now weighing again on the currency. A break below 1.0865 support would signal a test of 1.0780 will follow soon.

GBP/USD has been quiet since the beginning of the trading week. The important level is now 1.30. Should the pair break above it, momentum will likely accelerate and it should reach 1.31 fairly quickly.

USD/JPY has been driven higher by broad USD strength and positive equities. However, the rally stalled a bit overnight, and USD/JPY fell back to 113.60. Nevertheless, it still remains in demand and strong support is seen at 113.20.

Gold recover a bit as well. However, should the Dollar strength persist and equities extend the rally, the outlook remains rather weak in the short-term. Key resistance is noted at $1235, while a break below $1214 support would signal a decline towards $1200.

Upcoming Events:

  • 13:00 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 22:00 BST – RBNZ Rate Decision
  • 22:00 BST – RBNZ Statement
  • 23:00 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks

 

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