Thursday 1st February: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.60 %, Shanghai Composite down -1.39%, Hang Seng down 0.37%, ASX up 0.87%
  • Commodities: Gold at $1346.40 (+0.25%), Silver at $17.23 (-0.09%), WTI Oil at $64.80 (+0.11%), Brent Oil at $68.98 (+0.13%)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.729, UK 10-year yield at 1.507, German 10-year yield at 0.702

News & Data:

  • (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 expected
  • (AUD) Building Approvals m/m -20.00% vs -7.90% expected
  • (USD) Federal Funds Rate <1.50% vs <1.50% expected
  • (USD) Crude Oil Inventories 6.8M vs 0.1M expected
  • (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m 0.50% vs 0.50% expected
  • (USD) Chicago PMI 65.7 vs 64.2 expected
  • (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q 0.60% vs 0.60% expected
  • (CAD) RMPI m/m -0.90% vs -2.20% expected
  • (CAD) GDP m/m 0.40% vs 0.40% expected
  • (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 234K vs 186K expected
  • (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.00% vs 1.00% expected
  • (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.30% vs 1.30% expected
  • (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.50% vs 0.90% expected
  • (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m -1.90% vs -0.30% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets mixed Thursday. Regional yields up across the board with Treasury 10Y rate flipping higher. Dollar little changed vs majors, but is up from recent lows against yen following previous weakness. Oil extending gains with bearish DOE crude build offset by surprise gasoline draw. Industrial and precious metals little higher.

Chinese equities lower with mainland equities under pressure. PBoC skipped open market operations, draining another CNY80B in the process. Nikkei higher with tech and energy logging soli' gains. Results also helping sentiment with Nintendo (7974.JP) a highlight ASX's rebounding amid steadier commodity prices. Korean stocks flat while Taiwain's benchmark aided by strength in semis. On the economic calendar, Korea CPI missed expectations though exports beat China Caixin manufacturing PMI in-line.

European manufacturing PMI will also be in the spotlight later today against backdrop of yesterday's weaker Eurozone CPI print. Attention then shifts to US non-farm payrolls on Friday. Wall Street closed mostly higher, ending off post-FOMC lows. Unchanged decision and similar statement to December, though inflation expected to move up this year. March hike still anticipated. Treasuries ended mixed with some curve flattening. Bond proxies the standouts.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • &more…

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