Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.11%, Shanghai Composite down 1.64%, Hang Seng up 1.61%, ASX down 0.11%
- Commodities : Gold at $1251.30 (-0.26%), Silver at $16.05 (-0.94%), Brent Oil at $78.30 (-1.17%), WTI Oil at $73.41 (-1.00%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.847, UK 10-year yield at 1.279, Germany 10-year yield at 0.305
News & Data:
- (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51 vs 51.1 expected
- (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 55 vs 54.7 expected
- (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.7 expected
- (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.2 vs 99.1 expected
- (USD) Chicago PMI 64.1 vs 60.1 expected
- (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.20% vs 0.40% expected
- (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
- (CAD) RMPI m/m 3.80% vs 1.20% expected
- (CAD) GDP m/m 0.10% vs 0.00% expected
- (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.00% vs 1.00% expected
- (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.00% vs 2.00% expected
- (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.3B vs 5.2B expected
- (GBP) Final GDP q/q 0.20% vs 0.10% expected
- (GBP) Current Account -17.7B vs -18.0B expected
- (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer 101.7 vs 100.3 expected
- (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m -2.10% vs -0.50% expected
- German interior minister offers to resign over migration conflict
- LeBron James jumps to Lakers in 4-year, $154 million deal
- Brexit clouds UK financial sector mood
CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending June 26th, 2018)
- EUR long 34K vs 36K long last week. Longs trimmed 2K
- GBP short 22K vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
- JPY short 34K vs 36K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- CHF short 38K vs 32K short last week. Shorts increase by 6K
- CAD short 33K vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 19K
- AUD short 41k vs 43K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- NZD short 18K vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
Markets Update:
Major Asian markets declined on Monday, the first trading day of the second half of the year, as heavy losses were recorded in China ahead of a looming deadline when tariffs from both Washington and Beijing are expected to take effect. U.S. tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods are expected to take effect on July 6.
Crude oil prices declined more than 1 percent in Asian trades after rising to a four-year high on Friday, after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia has agreed to raise oil production.
The Nikkei tanked as investors digested mixed local economic data, including the Tankan business survey results that showed business sentiment in Japan worsened for the second straight quarter. Losses were broad-based, with retailers and the food sector among the worst performers in the afternoon.
The Shanghai composite fell more than 1.5%, while the smaller Shenzhen composite shed 0.5 percent. The fresh declines come after mainland markets staged a rebound in the previous session, with the Shanghai benchmark closing higher by 2.2 percent on Friday after four straight days of losses.
In currency markets, the euro took an early knock on reports German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer had rejected a migration deal German Chancellor Angela Merkel negotiated at a European Union summit on Friday. The U.S. dollar was a touch firmer on a basket of currencies at 94.720, having recoiled from a 95.324 top on Friday. It added 0.3 percent on the yen to 110.97 and was again testing stiff resistance above 111.00.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, July 2nd 2018
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Tentative – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence
Tuesday, July 3rd 2018
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
- 05:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
- 05:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Construction PMI
- Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
Wednesday, July 4th 2018
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
- 02:45 AM GMT – (CNY) Caixin Services PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
Thursday, July 5th 2018
- 11:00 AM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 12:15 PM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
Friday, July 6th 2018
- 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Halifax HPI m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
- 03:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI
