Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.94%, ASX up 0.64%
- Commodities: Gold at $1349.90 (-0.46%), Silver at $16.630 (-0.47%), WTI Oil at $62.28 (+1.19%), Brent Oil at $65.36 (+0.80%)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.873, UK 10-year yield at 1.580, German 10-year yield at 0.707
News & Data:
- (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.9 vs 95.4 expected
- (USD) Import Prices m/m 1.00% vs 0.60% expected
- (USD) Housing Starts 1.33M vs 1.23M expected
- (USD) Building Permits 1.40M vs 1.29M expected
- (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.30% vs 0.20% expected
- (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases -1.97B vs 19.18B expected
- (GBP) Retail Sales m/m 0.10% vs 0.50% expected
- Commodity Currencies Will Get Bit If US Steel Tariffs Have Teeth
- Fed's Powell names two senior advisers: report
- Trump vents frustration over Russia probe, rails against FBI
CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending February 13th, 2018)
- EUR long 128K vs 141K long last week. Longs trimmed by 8K.
- GBP long 15K vs 28K long last week. Longs trimmed by 13K.
- JPY short 115K vs 113K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K.
- CHF short 20K vs 20K short last week. No change in the current week.
- CAD long 33K vs 40K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K.
- AUD long 9k vs 14k long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K.
- NZD long 2K vs 3K short last week. Longs trimmed by 1K.
Markets Update:
Asian markets in the green today, following global footsteps of a recovery, as sentiments improved, quelling fears of creeping inflation and higher borrowing costs. However, one should view this with a pinch of caution, as thin volumes may be responsible for magnifying gains, on account of the Lunar New Year holiday.
While the yen is near recent highs, Nikkei can be seen to outperform other Asian markets. With Kudroa re-appointed, there will be a continuity of stimulus measures, a key part of Abenomics. However, yen strength may pose a threat to manufacturers, although there has been a higher than forecast increase in Japanese export growth.
Aussie and New Zealand yields have backed up, alongside the equity upmove – the ASX was led by the defensive groups. The strengthening of base metals, and oil’s rebound also helped the ASX. Oil is near two week highs, backed by news of an alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
Weak dollar also helped currencies in their gains. The Dollar Index made a slight recovery, with the USD slightly gaining against major currencies. However, it continues to be weighed down by a barrage of factors, including worries about widening U.S. trade and budget deficits and speculation Washington might pursue a weak dollar strategy.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, 19th February 2018
- 06:45 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 09:45 PM GMT – (NZD) PPI Input q/q
- 10:15 PM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
- &more…
Tuesday, 20th February 2018
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
- Tentative GMT – (NZD) GDT Price Index
Wednesday, 21st February 2018
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Construction Work Done q/q
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Wage Price Index q/q
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
- 02:15 PM GMT – (GBP) Inflation Report Hearings
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Existing Home Sales
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, 22nd February 2018
- 05:15 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Second Estimate GDP q/q
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Prelim Business Investment q/q
- 12:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 05:10 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 09:45 PM GMT – (NZD) Retail Sales q/q
- 09:45 PM GMT – (NZD) Core Retail Sales q/q
Friday, 23rd February 2018
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
- 03:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
- 06:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Mester Speaks
- 08:40 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
