Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.70 %, Shanghai Composite lost 1.40 %, Hang Seng declined 0.95 %, ASX 200 rose 0.45 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1202 (+0.50 %), Silver at $16.87 (+0.65 %), WTI Oil at $52.55 (+0.35 %), Brent Oil at $55.65 (+0.40 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.40, UK 10-year yield at 1.36, German 10-year yield at 0.34
News & Data:
- Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) Nov: 0.20% (prev. 0.20%)
- Japan Machine Orders (MoM) Nov: -5.1% (est. -1.4%, prev. 4.1%)
- Japan Machine Orders (YoY) Nov: 10.4% (est. 8.1%, prev. -5.6%)
- Japan PPI (YoY) Dec: -1.2% (est. -1.4%, prev. -2.2%)
- Japan PPI (MoM) Dec: 0.6% (est. 0.4%, prev. 0.4%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) Jan: 0.4% (prev. -2.1%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) Jan: 3.2% (prev. 3.4%)
- Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) Dec: 0.5% (prev. 0.1%)
- Australia Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) Dec: 1.8% (prev. 1.5%)
- New Zealand Food Prices (MoM) Dec: -0.8% (prev. -0.1%)
- China sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8874 (prev fix 6.8909, prev close 6.9022)
- Sterling skids on Brexit anxiety; investors hope for Trump clarity – RTRS
- Japan core machinery orders fall as Trump, demand uncertainty sets in – RTRS
- Oil prices edge up on weaker dollar, expected crude output cuts – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 66K vs 70K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K.
- GBP short 66K vs 65K short last week. Shorts increase by 1K.
- JPY short 80K vs. 87K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K.
- CHF short 14K vs. 13K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- CAD short 8K vs 4K short last week. Shorts increase by 4K.
- AUD short 4K vs 2K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K.
-
NZD short 14K vs 11K short last week. Short increased by 3K.
Markets Update:
The British Pound fell sharply at the Asia open today, following reports that UK Prime Minister May seeks a “hard Brexit”, meaning that the UK will leave the EU single market. GBP/USD opened around 1.20, down from 1.2190. It managed to recover slightly later in the session, to a high of 1.2055, but it will be difficult for it to fill the gap ahead of May’s speech.
This dragged the Euro lower as well, and EUR/USD opened at 1.0630, approximately 10 pips down from Friday's close. It declined to a low of 1.0600 after the Tokyo open. USD/JPY came under pressure amid falling equity markets and declined from 114.45 to 113.95.
The commodity currencies weakened as well, with AUD/USD falling from 0.7505 to 0.7470. The pair ran into major resistance at 0.7520, and the key support level to watch now is 0.74. NZD/USD declined from 0.7145 to 0.7090.
Upcoming Events:
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Trade Balance
- 18:30 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
- 21:00 GMT – New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, January 17th
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Home Loans
- 04:30 GMT – Japanese Industrial Production
- 09:00 GMT – Italian Trade Balance
- 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 11:00 GMT – ECB Member Nowotny speaks
- 13:45 GMT – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
- 15:00 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
- 23:00 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
Wednesday, January 18th
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment
- 07:00 GMT – German CPI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
- 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US CPI
- 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
- 14:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
- 14:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
- 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Rate Decision
- 15:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
- 16:00 GMT – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
- 16:15 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
- 21:30 GMT – New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Building Permits
Thursday, January 19th
- 00:00 GMT – New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence
- 00:00 GMT – Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Unemployment Rate
- 00:30 GMT – Australian Employment Change
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
- 12:45 GMT – ECB Rate Decision
- 13:30 GMT – ECB Press Conference
- 13:30 GMT – US Building Permits
- 13:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday, January 20th
- 00:00 GMT – Australia HIA New Home Sales
- 02:00 GMT – China GDP
- 02:00 GMT – China Industrial Production
- 02:00 GMT – China Retail Sales
- 07:00 GMT – German Producer Prices
- 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
- 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Harker speaks
- 18:00 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
