Monday 11th June: Markets mostly shrug off G7 summit – All eyes on US-NK summit

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.54%, Shanghai Composite down 0.77%, Hang Seng up 0.22%,
• Commodities : Gold at $1302.40 (-0.02%), Silver at $16.92 (+1.04%), Brent Oil at $76.19 (-0.35%), WTI Oil at $65.55 (-0.29%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.957, UK 10-year yield at 1.391, Germany 10-year yield at 0.453

News & Data:

• (CNY) CPI y/y 1.80% vs 1.80% expected
• (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.80% vs 5.80% expected
• (CAD) Employment Change -7.5K vs 19.1K expected
• (CNY) Trade Balance 157B vs 238B expected
• Italy's economy minister insists abandoning euro not planned
• China's Xi backs nuclear deal in talks with Iran leader
• Fair Trade is now to be called Fool Trade if it is not Reciprocal. According to a Canada release, they make almost 100 Billion Dollars in Trade : Donald Trump

CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending June 5th, 2018)

• EUR long 89K vs 93K long last week. Longs trimmed 4K
• GBP long 7K vs 9K long last week. Longs trimmed 2K
• JPY short 3K vs 8K short last week. Shorts trimmed 5K
• CHF short 39K vs 43K short last week.  Shorts trimmed 4K
• CAD short 16K vs 16K short last week. Unchanged
• AUD short 20k vs 21K short last week.  Shorts trimmed 1K
• NZD long 4K vs 1K long last week. Longs increased by 3K

Markets Update:

Asian markets are mixed today, as they wait with crossed fingers, for tomorrow’s US – North Korea summit in Singapore. The markets seem to have largely shrugged out the drama that unfolded over the weekend at the G7 summit. The markets in Australia are closed for the Queen's Birthday holiday.

The Japanese market recovered after a weak start and is modestly higher following the positive cues from Wall Street on Friday and as Japan's core machine orders data for April topped expectations.

Stocks wobbled in early trade after U.S. President Donald Trump raised fresh fears of a global trade war when he backed out of a joint Group of Seven communique over the weekend, in a blow to the group’s efforts to show a united front.

The Fed holds a two-day meeting starting on June 12, and it is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year. The focus is on whether the central bank will hint at raising rates a total of four times in 2018.

Oil prices were slipped from a downward pull of rising Russian production and increasing U.S. oil drilling activity. Bitcoin struggled near two-month lows after South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinrail said it was hacked over the weekend, raising concerns about security at small- to mid-sized virtual currency exchanges.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, June 11^th, 2018

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Goods Trade Balance

Tuesday, June 12^th, 2018

• 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) NAB Business Confidence
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m

Wednesday, June 13^th, 2018

• 03:00 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
• 08:15 AM GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
• 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
• 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Economic Projections
• 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Statement
• 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) Federal Funds Rate
• 07:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Press Conference

Thursday, June 14^th, 2018

• 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
• 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
• 03:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
• 03:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Industrial Production y/y
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
• 12:45 PM GMT – (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) NHPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 11:30 PM GMT – (NZD) Business NZ Manufacturing Index

Friday, June 15^th, 2018

• 04:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
• Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Policy Rate
• Tentative – (JPY) Monetary Policy Statement
• Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 02:15 PM GMT – (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate
• 02:15 PM GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment