Wednesday 31st January: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.62%, Shanghai Composite down 0.59%, Hang Seng down 0.12%, ASX up 0.25%
  • Commodities: Gold at $1342.00 (+0.49%), Silver at $17.17 (+0.66%), WTI Oil at $63.91 (-0.91 %), Brent Oil at $67.98 (-0.79%)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.707, UK 10-year yield at 1.462, German 10-year yield at 0.691

News & Data:  

  • (JPY) Consumer Confidence 44.7 vs 44.9 expected
  • (JPY) Housing Starts y/y -2.10% vs 1.10% expected
  • (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 51.3 vs 51.5 expected
  • (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.3 vs 55 previous
  • (AUD) Private Sector Credit m/m 0.30% vs 0.50% expected
  • (AUD) Trimmed Mean CPI q/q 0.40% vs 0.50% expected
  • (AUD) CPI q/q 0.60% vs 0.70% expected
  • (GBP) GfK Consumer Confidence -9 vs -13 expected
  • (GBP) BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.50% vs -0.60% previous
  • (JPY) Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.70% vs 1.50% expected
  • (USD) CB Consumer Confidence 125.4 vs 123.2 expected
  • (USD) S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.40% vs 6.30% expected
  • (EUR) Italian 10-y Bond Auction 2.06|1.3 vs 1.86|1.8 previous
  • (EUR) Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.60% vs 0.60% expected
  • (GBP) Mortgage Approvals 61K vs 66K expected
  • (GBP) M4 Money Supply m/m -0.60% vs 0.20% expected
  • (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.2B vs 4.8B expected
  • (EUR) Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.70% vs 0.70% expected
  • (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer 106.9 vs 110.9 expected
  • (EUR) French Consumer Spending m/m -1.20% vs 0.40% expected
  • (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m -0.70% vs -0.50% expected
  • (CHF) Trade Balance 2.63B vs 2.54B expected
  • Trump Makes Bipartisan Pitch In First State Of The Union, But Also Plays To Base
  • Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Team Up to Try to Disrupt Health Care

Markets Update:

Asian markets are mixed today, after opening in the red, with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. Australia, on the other hand, is under pressure, both from the defensive sectors, as well as the commodity related weakness. Samsung’s good fortune in Q4 helped pull up the KOSPI.

Chinese markets have been mixed, with the PBoC skipping open market operations. Japanese industrial production growth has topped consensus. BoJ’s Summary of Opinions signalled a continuation of existing policy, with many urging continued easing which was also echoed by Iwata, who made a case that CPI is still weak, and wage growth is key to a pickup in inflation.

In bonds, regional yields have retraced some of the gains it had made while mirroring the upmove in US Treasury yields. Dollar has been mixed in early trading, no change against the yen, but lower with respect to the Euro.

There were no surprises for the US economy in President Trump’s State of the Union address. Aussie dollar on the other hand is markedly lower after disappointing CPI data. Oil has been on the slide, following bearish inventory data, whereas Industrial and Precious metals have edged higher.

Upcoming Events:               

  • 07:00 AM GMT – (CHF) UBS Consumption Indicator
  • 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m
  • 07:45 AM GMT – (EUR) French Prelim CPI m/m
  • 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y
  • 08:55 AM GMT – (EUR) German Unemployment Change
  • 09:00 AM GMT – (CHF) Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
  • 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
  • 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Unemployment Rate
  • 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) RMPI m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) IPPI m/m
  • 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Employment Cost Index q/q
  • 02:45 PM GMT – (USD) Chicago PMI
  • 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m
  • 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Statement
  • 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) Federal Funds Rate
  • 10:30 PM GMT – (AUD) AIG Manufacturing Index
  • &more…

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