Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.60 %, ASX 200 lost 0.95 %, Shanghai and Hang Seng closed for holiday
- Commodities: Gold at $1202 (+0.55 %), Silver at $17.18 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $52.40 (-0.40 %), Brent Oil at $55.25 (-0.15 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.47, UK 10-year yield at 1.45, German 10-year yield at 0.45
News & Data:
- BoJ keep policy unchanged, upgrade GDP forecasts (as expected), CPI forecasts broadly unchanged, extend lending programmes (as expected)
- Australia NAB Business Conditions Dec: 11 (prev. 5)
- Australia NAB Business Confidence Dec: 6 (prev. 5)
- Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) Dec: 0.7% (est. 0.50%, prev. 0.50%
- Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) Dec: 5.6% (est. 5.40%, prev. 5.40%)
- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Jan 29: 118.1 (prev. 117.0)
- Japan Jobless Rate Dec: 3.1% (est. 3.10%, prev. 3.10%)
- Japan Jobs-To-Application Ratio Dec: 1.43 (est. 1.42, prev. 1.41)
- Japan Household Spending (YoY) Dec: -0.3% (est. -0.90%, prev. -1.50%)
- Japan Industrial Production (MoM) Dec P: 0.5% (est. 0.30%, prev. 1.50%)
- Japan Industrial Production (YoY) Dec P: 3.0% (est. 3.00%, prev. 4.60%)
- UK GfK Consumer Confidence Jan: -5 (est. -8, prev. -7)
- NZ M3 Money Supply (YoY) Dec: 6.4% (prev. 5.90%)
Markets Update:
The Bank of Japan left its rates and QE programme unchanged, as expected by the market. The central bank upgraded its GDP forecasts slightly, but left the inflation forecasts unchanged. The Yen strengthened slightly after the announcement, with USD/JPY declining from 113.70 to 113.25. Following the break below 114, support is now seen at 113.00 and 112.50. To the topside, resistance is noted at 114.00/10 and 114.90/115.
Australian business confidence data improved, with the NAB index for December arriving at 6.0 vs. 5.0 expected. The Australian Dollar rose overnight, with AUD/USD up 0.15 % from 0.7550 to 0.7570. NZD/USD traded in a 0.7280-97 range.
EUR/USD recovered after bouncing off 1.0620 support in yesterday's NY session. Strong German inflation data helped the Euro recover and the focus today will be on the Euro Zone GDP and inflation numbers. Another solid CPI print could help the Euro take out the major resistance level at 1.0775.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
- 07:45 GMT – French CPI
- 08:00 GMT – Spanish CPI
- 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
- 14:45 GMT – US Chicago PMI
- 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Unemployment Rate
- 22:30 GMT – Australian AIG Manufacturing Index
- 22:35 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
